莫再幻想友好，认真对付日本

 Discard illusion of friendly ties with Japan

Sino-Japanese relations suffered a serious blow Tuesday when the Japanese government signed a deal to purchase the Diaoyu Islands with the self-proclaimed "owner." The friendly ties between the two countries established in the 1970s collapsed completely.

Chinese anger of over a century toward Japan was awakened Tuesday, and will in turn affect Japanese feelings toward China. It appears inevitable the two sides will be overwhelmed by hatred again now that more conflicts can be expected. China needs to be prepared for further deterioration of bilateral ties. For Beijing, the future priority isn't to maintain stable ties, but to protect its core interests as Sino-Japanese relations sour.

Despite China's commitment to building friendly neighboring ties, the Diaoyu issue has turned China and Japan into opponents. China isn't used to having an adversary close by. But it isn't necessarily a bad thing. Japan inflicted painful atrocities against China in the past. It is now more developed than China, but is in decline. The balance of national power is shifting between the two. With such a close opponent, China can be spurred to action.

Japan depends on the Chinese market more than China does on the Japanese market. A political confrontation will bring insignificant economic damage to China. Meanwhile, with China's nuclear deterrence, Japan is less likely to launch a military attack on China. Of course, Tokyo may remilitarize itself, even with nuclear armaments, encouraged by the US. But that still poses a limited threat to China. China has plenty of measures to restrain Japan. Pressure on Japan can also come from other neighboring countries.

China has been advocating friendly ties with its neighbor, but Japan has created enough troubles for China over the years. But its behavior toward the US and Russia demonstrates its inferiority toward strong countries. China cannot repeat what the US and Russia did to Japan. But a lesson is necessary to dispel its contempt toward China since the Meiji Restoration.

China is accumulating strength with its fast development. It can fully show this strength to Japan in a future conflict to reverse Japan's attitude toward China. Until that time, it is possible to restart friendly ties between China and Japan. It may take 30 years if it goes smoothly. In a word, most young and middle-aged people will be able to see Japan treat China differently.

Keeping friendly neighboring ties is a good policy. But it cannot be achieved through one-sided begging and compromising.

莫再幻想友好，认真对付日本

日本政府昨天与钓鱼岛的所谓“拥有者”正式签署“购岛”协议，昨天因此真成了中日关系的“9·11”。从上世纪70年代起发展起来的中日友好关系此前已是百孔千疮，到昨天它彻底垮塌了。

中国人对日本一个多世纪以来的愤怒昨天全都被唤醒了，这也必将反过来影响日本社会对中国的感受。中日重新成为两个相互仇视的民族大概很难避免，中日关系必将进入一个大摩擦期。

中方应对中日关系的进一步恶化甚至极端恶化有充分准备。中方的工作重点应是确保两国关系的恶化过程不伤害中国的核心利益。

我们一直致力于睦邻友好政策，但钓鱼岛问题使中日变成很难化解的对手。我们以往很不习惯有一个对手在身边，但今后我们也许要让自己的心理更强大，接受这一新挑战。

这未必就不是好事。日本是中国的“世仇”，它至今比我们先进，却在衰落中，中日力量对比在发生历史性改变，中国经济总量已经超过日本，很快能达到它的两倍，今后可能成为它的三四倍甚至更多。这样一个对手在身边刺激我们，让我们不舒服，但也必将激励我们。

日本是美国的盟国，中日友好从未动摇美日同盟，它对我们的政治意义并不大。当前日本对中国市场的依赖度已经超过中国对日本市场的依赖度，中日政治对立对中国经济利益伤害有限。由于中国是核国家，可以对日本保持强大的军事威慑。

因此中国完全可以把日本当成对手来对待。它的力量大小对中国来说最合适，它比菲律宾等要大很多，加之历史和它对历史的态度，这个对手足以调动中国社会的警惕和自省。而它又远不如世界一流国家强大，无法构成对中国的致命威胁。

当然，日本有可能在美国的纵容下重新军国主义化，甚至核武化，但即使那样，它对中国的威胁也将是有限的，中国有大量手段可以制约它，而且周边也会有其他力量制约它的军事崛起。

中日友好的后来这些年，日本没少给中国添麻烦。当我们真将它设为对手之后，未来的麻烦未必就会更多。

相反，日本被美国占领后的表现以及它的对俄表现都显示，这是个欺软怕硬的国家。美俄都在战场上击败过它，余威尚在。中国已无法重复美俄的对日历史，但中国也必须以某种形式给日本一次完整的教训，彻底扭转它自明治维新以来对中国的蔑视。

中国在快速发展中，我们需要把力量攒足，并在某个冲突点上充分对日展示出来，重塑它对中华力量的敬畏。只有这之后的日本才会认真改变同中国打交道的方式，那时的中日友好或许才能重新开始。

这个过程如果顺利的话，大约需要30年左右。也就是说，今天的年轻人和中年人都有可能在有生之年看到日本对中国完全有别于今天的脸色。

睦邻友好是好政策，但它不是求出来、哄出来、让出来的。把日本当对手，比对它讲“一衣带水”更有利于让它清醒。对中国来说，这也是对民意的契合。▲